USD/JPY: BOJ Intervention Zone — Short with Caution

USD/JPY is back above 155 and approaching levels where the Bank of Japan previously intervened.

Key Points

- BOJ intervened at ~160 in April and October 2024
- Japanese officials increasing verbal warnings
- Interest rate differential remains wide but narrowing
- Technical: Triple top pattern forming at 158-160 zone

Strategy

Scale into shorts between 157-160 with wide stops above 162. This is a mean-reversion play that requires patience. BOJ intervention creates violent moves — manage risk accordingly.

Warning

This is a counter-trend trade against the carry trade. Position size accordingly.